Baltic States – CIS, Estonia, EU – Baltic States, Russia, Security

The Information Board on Wednesday published a report titled "International Security and Estonia 2017" which describer the threats against Estonia and also assesses the military danger arising from Russia, the Ministry of Defense said.#=

"We clearly state in the report that in 2017 the probability of a Russian military attack against NATO is low," Marran said at the report's presentation to journalists. "This likelihood is not non-existent, but it is low," he stressed.

According to Marran the military threat is about the same as it was a year ago. He said that while NATO can be efficient and Russia has unfinished military conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, the situation will remain the same.

"Considering the fact that the Russian government is an authoritarian regime, the risk that the Russian leadership will make a strategic miscalculation and decide to test the functioning of NATO's collective defense cannot be completely ruled out. Moreover, the Russian regime has to keep an "external enemy" prominent to divert attention from domestic problems and stifle society's aspirations for democracy," it is written in the second annual overview of the Information Board.

According to EIB, Russia will continue with active influencing activities in the direction of the West, including Estonia. "Such activities are not just propaganda, but a set of different methods and tactics, the aim of which is to increase tensions in the society and to harm the reputation of the West, including Estonia," Marran said.

"A clear understanding of what is going on is the cornerstone of our security," Estonian Defense Minister Margus Tsahkna said. "Our intelligence agencies are world class and provide us with an adequate picture of the security situation," he said, adding that Estonia is protected due to increasing its defensive capability and its cooperation with the allies.

According to Marran, Russia might use upcoming elections in influential EU member states to influence such states. Against Estonia Russia may use the arrival of new allied forces, Estonia's EU presidency, the large-scale Russian Zapad military exercise in September and local elections in Estonia taking place in the fall.