Analytics, Baltic States – CIS, Demography, Education and Science, EU – Baltic States, Latvia, Society

According to the Central Statistical Bureau's data, 25,200 people emigrated from Latvia last year. The professor estimates, however, that the actual figure was at least 30,000. Hazans explains that there are no precise data for 2012 as yet, because the latest data for all target countries for emigrants from Latvia are not yet available. He believes nevertheless that the emigration pace has reduced by about 20%.

The professor notes that the emigration rate will continue to decline if the development of Latvia is as fast as now and the social policy improves, however, no swift reductions should be expected. "Of course, emigration will not drop to zero level. But if we reach a point where the balance will be at least close to zero, where the number of emigrants will not be much larger than the number of immigrants, that will be good," says Hazans.

Hazans also does not quite agree with the data on immigration in Latvia. In this case, people who now permanently reside in Latvia should be distinguished from those who have acquired Latvia's residency permits, as well as from children of Latvian nationals born abroad, who are later registered as residents of Latvia and entered in statistical data as immigrants.

Hazans indicates that the largest number of immigrants in the future will be from the post-Soviet countries: Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Central Asia. Although the majority of emigrants from these countries originally want to emigrate to a Western European country, many choose to stay in Latvia as the environment here is not starkly different from that in their native countries.

Just like the Central Statistical Bureau, Hazans has no data on re-emigration pace, but the results of various surveys that he knows of do not indicate any significant increase in the re-emigration pace.

Hazans' data on the proportion of emigrants aged 35 or less also differ from the official ones, according to which this proportion was at 60% in 2012. Hazans has information that emigrants aged 35 or less made up 75% to 80% of all emigrants last year. He explains that his data are based on statistics collected by other countries as well as Great Britain's statistics as of the beginning of 2012. On the other hand, Hazans agrees with the official statistics that the largest proportion of emigrants, expressed as%age of the local population, is from Latgale Province.

Hazans is critical of the Central Statistical Bureau's data, emphasizing that statistical data on such important matters must be very reliable, based on detailed and transparent methodology. At the moment, there is very little information available about the methodology employed by the Statistical Bureau, says Hazans.

As reported, according to the Central Statistical Bureau's data, Latvia's population was 2.02 million on January 1 of this year, a 21,000 reduction when compared to January 1 of the previous year. Due to negative natural movement, as the number of deaths exceeded the number of births, Latvia's population reduced by 9,100 in 2012, while due to international long-term migration, Latvia's population reduced by 11,900 last year (in 2011 – by 20,100 due to migration).

In 2012,13,300 people arrived to Latvia from third countries (3,100 more than in 2011), while 25,200 thousand people moved from Latvia to permanent residence in other countries (5,100 less than in the previous year), the Central Statistical Bureau said. Females comprised 41% of the total number of people arriving to Latvia, while males – 59%. Half of the immigrants were aged 20-39.