Baltic States – CIS, Estonia, Port, Transport

“It is physically not possible /.../ irrespective of what the powerful Russian leaders would want,” said Vare.

Vare said that the infrastructure that would have to be built for this would be unnaturally big and even Russia cannot do it that fast. “Second, if we talk about access, i.e. connection to railways and highways, then the room, skills or actually need for it do not exist,” said Vare. “And third, an operator would be needed who would move these cargo volumes in reality.”

“There is no reason to think that such big growth will come because Putin said so. This should be demanded by the market and enabled by infrastructure and neither is likely in this timeframe,” said Vare.

Vare said that Ust-Luga doesn’t mean death of Estonian transit and is more a possibility than danger. “The paradox is that in land transport Ust-Luga is a competitor, but not in sea transport.” He mentioned yesterday’s Äripäev interview with logistics company Vopak E.O.S. manager Arnout Lugtmeijer, who confirmed that Ust-Luga will have a positive effect on them. Estonian railways network operator Estonian Railways announced last week that Russian oil transport consolidating in the Ust-Luga port has considerably reduced the cargo volumes.